HP XP Performance Advisor Software - Manual (Page 408)

F Appendix F
Forecasting ThP pool performance
Guidelines for selecting data range to receive an optimal forecast
To validate the forecasted data, we need to understand the trend of the existing data, as the
forecasted data is an extension of the existing trend. The forecasted data represents a trend of the
ThP pool occupancy values and not the actual values. The following graph indicates the trend of
the actual values. The forecasted values be an extension of the trend of the selected data points.
The following graph indicates the forecasted graph in red. The forecasted data starts below the
actual value and gradually grows upwards, based on the trend of the actual data.
NOTE: HP XP P9000 Performance Advisor does not plot the trend as part of the charts. The trend
shown in the preceding image is only for your reference.
The accuracy of the forecasting depends on the following factors:
•
Data range size: The accuracy of the forecast is directly proportional to the size of data chosen.
So, select a range as large as possible. HP recommends to have at least 100 data points for
HP XP P9000 Performance Advisor to project an optimal forecast.
•
End date of the selection: The end date should be near to the current date. If some of the
recent past data is omitted, the forecasted data not account for variances in that interval.
•
No variance: Select a data range that has at least some variance. If the selected data range
has constant values for most of the range, the forecast may follow the constant data pattern.
•
Empty collection ranges: Missing data points may induce error in the forecasted data.
408 Appendix F